What are prediction markets?
A prediction market is a type of market that allows individuals to buy, sell, and trade contracts that are based on the outcome of future events. A contract represents the outcome that a trader believes will happen. For instance, a contract can be structured as "Yes," "No," "Win," "Loss," or any variant of answers that apply to the event, which is phrased like a question.
Depending on how events resolve, there may be a payout and profits. However, if an event resolves unfavorably, the result is a loss of capital.
Each contract's price is determined by a variety of factors that are unique to the company/platform running the prediction market. Limited supply and demand, internal house rules, or weighted popular expectations are just some of the ways that the price of contracts are set.
Please note that contracts should not be confused for events, as there are always multiple contracts that can be traded (like multiple possible outcomes) per event. Some traders will even hedge their position by buying more than one contract on the same event.
As a general rule of thumb, more popular contracts are A) in higher demand, B) cost more to buy, and C) reward less profit than unpopular contracts. Unpopular contracts are perceived to be more risky/less likely outcomes - and therefore produce an oversized return of profits if they resolve in your favor. This imbalance between demand for popular and unpopular contracts, probability (odds), and their rewards are what makes prediction markets so exciting.
What is Destiny?
Destiny is a prediction markets platform where users can spend crypto to trade contracts on the outcome of future events. The platform features over 5+ categories to choose from, such as sports, crypto, politics, entertainment, and finance.
For a brief overview, check out the video below:
How do you use Destiny?
Using Destiny is fairly simple, and can be done by following the 5 steps below. For a more detailed walkthrough, please view their tutorial series.
- Create an account at playdestiny.io. You will be asked to register your email address, create a password, and confirm your OTP code. No KYC (Know-Your-Customer) process is necessary.
- Purchase Fate Blazing Stars (FBS), the in-game currency of Destiny. FBS is used to trade on all contracts, and is also the reward for event resolution. Simply deposit your stablecoins from an external exchange/wallet to purchase FBS, or buy stablecoins through their integrated partner, Transak.
- Choose an event. Pick the areas that you feel most comfortable and knowledgeable about, and capitalize on your strengths. Take note of details like the event closing time, resolution time, and resolution source.
- Trade contracts. Enter the amount of FBS that you wish to trade in exchange for the contract. Be aware of the odds, and the potential return that you stand to make by choosing less popular contracts.
- Wait for event resolution, and claim your prize. All winnings from Destiny are automatically deposited to your account. If you didn't win - better luck next time!
How does Destiny stack up against alternative platforms?
When compared to other prediction market platforms, Destiny scores fairly high marks in terms of available event types, fees, payment methods, and ease of use.
However, it suffers when it comes to the number of available events and the range of potential returns. The competitors that we've examined today include Stake.com, Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt.
Variety of events:
- Destiny currently features 9 event categories: Crypto, AFF (football), NBA, Entertainment, Golden Globe Awards, Finance, Politics, Technology, and Pop Culture.
- The next closest competitor, Polymarket, has only 6 categories.
- The platform with the fewest categories is PredictIt, which focuses on politics.
- Destiny has the lowest fees of all the platforms.
- In stark contrast, PredictIt takes a whopping 10% of all profits and 2% on all withdrawn balances.
- Polymarket claims to take no fees for themselves, which is technically true - but 2% is deducted from deposits and withdrawals for miners and relayers.
- Destiny has the greatest number of crypto payment options and supports most stablecoins (USDC, USDT, BUSD, DAI), but cannot be played using fiat money directly. Instead, fiat users must first purchase stablecoins through a third-party partner, Transak.
- Kalshi has the least number of payment options, supporting only fiat. However, it is able to facilitate direct fiat purchases.
Ease of use:
- Most of the other platforms boast an impressive UI, but clutter and an overwhelming number of widgets adds to the confusion.
Destiny is a great pick for first-time prediction market traders and seasoned veterans alike. While it is less established than some of its counterparts and lacks a large number of events to choose from - it makes up for it in event quality, low costs, and ease of use.
For a limited time, new Destiny users can earn 2000 FBS by referring their friends! We hope you found this guide useful, and wish you the best in your prediction markets journey.